by Niklas Ungar | Oct 26, 2026 | Reports
In 2024, prediction markets backed Donald Trump while the polls called a toss-up, and they were right. In Brazil, the same confidence has now backfired: hours before the October 25 runoff, Polymarket gave Senator Flávio Bolsonaro roughly 80% odds of unseating...
by Niklas Ungar | Oct 6, 2026 | Reports
For the first time, an AI has won the Metaculus Cup, a seasonal tournament in which hundreds of forecasters predict real-world events. In the round decided on September 5, other bots took second and fifth place, leaving humans third and fourth. The winning bot was...
by Niklas Ungar | Feb 24, 2026 | Reports, Uncategorized
Who predicts the future best: seasoned domain experts, statistical models, or amateur forecasters? A research review by consultancy Arb finds that none of the three wins outright, but the rankings may still surprise you. Top “superforecasters” hold a...
by Niklas Ungar | Feb 24, 2026 | Reports
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket where anyone can bet real money on future events are proving surprisingly competitive with professional economists. A working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that over Kalshi’s five-year...
by J. Peter Murmann | Jan 24, 2026 | Reports
Adam Jonas, long known as one of Morgan Stanley’s most influential auto analysts, has taken on a striking new role: the bank’s first “global embodied AI strategist,” focused on robotics, autonomous vehicles, drones, and even flying cars. Jonas compares his research...
by Leon Bamesreiter | Mar 23, 2025 | Reports
Remember our article about new models by Google outperforming traditional weather models? Progress has been made since then: meet “Aardvark Weather,” a cutting-edge system built on machine learning (ML) that’s transforming how we predict the weather—potentially for...
by Leon Bamesreiter | Sep 26, 2024 | Reports
“No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs” – that’s a bold prediction by AI forecasting startup Aaru’s founder Cam Fink. The startup wants to revolutionize forecasting in every application of business- and everyday life. For now they...
by Leon Bamesreiter | Sep 22, 2024 | Reports
All large U.S. newspapers are coming out with opinion polls that try to give us a snapshot of who the U.S. electorate would vote for if the election were held today. Statisticians such as Nate Silver have tried to make election forecasts more accurate than individual...
by Leon Bamesreiter | May 20, 2024 | Reports
As on earth, there are also storms in space. While storms on earth are tangible, space storms are less evident as they consist of charged particles. The effects of these storms can be pleasant – geomagnetic storms are responsible for the northern lights – but can also...
