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Prediction Markets and Forecasting Platforms

GJ Open

Metaculus

Polymarket

PredictIt

GJ Open

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. It has over 2 million predictions to 17.000 questions.

Brier Score: 0.084

Polymarket is the largest crypto prediction platform. People can wager using a stable coin called USDT and popular events garner millions of USD in stakes.

PredictIt was one of the first publicly accessible real-money prediction market. It started as a project of the University of Victoria in 2014.

Good Judgement (GJ) Open is the forecasting platform used by Phil Tetlock and his team. It is a non-money-based platform.

Future

Futuur

Manifold

Zeitgeist

Kalshi

Futuur is a real-money prediction market, where people can use USD to bet on future events. Popular events garner stakes of a couple thousand dollars.

Manifold is the largest social prediction market. Participants “bet” using the websites currency called “Mana”

 

Brier Score: 0.107

Zeitgeist is a crypto prediction market and also a crypto currency (mainly used on the platform). The platform is still very small with only a hand full of traders per question.

Kalshi is the first CFTC regulated exchange dedicated to trading on the outcome of future events. People bet using USD and on popular events there are several hundreds of thousands, if not millons at stake.

The RAND Forecasting Initiative aims to crowdsource forecasts without using money. There are c. 100-200 participants for each question.