Forecasting Strategy 

Forecasting the next 100 years

Forecasting the next 100 years

The Metacalculus prediting platform has published a very useful report, using both a group of superforecasters and a large group of forecasters, to make forecasts about key trends for the next 100 years.   You download full report here. 

Gigerenzer on Strength and Weakness of AI

Gigerenzer on Strength and Weakness of AI

Gerd Gigerenzer has written a wonderful new book How to Stay Smart in a Smart World: Why Human Intelligence Still Beats Algorithms.| It strikes me as an update of Dreyfus and Dreyfus 1992 book "What Computers still can't do."   Below is a video with Gigerenzer on...

Gerd Gigerenzer on “Risk Literacy”

Gerd Gigerenzer on “Risk Literacy”

This is a very useful talk based on Gigerenzer's book. Using the example weather forecasts he makes he explains that many people do know know why the relevant reference class is when we are told it rains with 30% proability.  He also councils that we always need to...