Forecasting Strategy
Forecasting the next 100 years
The Metacalculus prediting platform has published a very useful report, using both a group of superforecasters and a large group of forecasters, to make forecasts about key trends for the next 100 years. You read download full report here.
Are icevs or bevs more modular? Implications for the future of the auto industry
By Johann Peter Murmann and Benedikt Schuler How will the technological shift from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) change the architecture of the automotive industry? To explore this question, we systematically compare...
Gigerenzer on Strength and Weakness of AI
Gerd Gigerenzer has written a wonderful new book How to Stay Smart in a Smart World: Why Human Intelligence Still Beats Algorithms.| It strikes me as an update of Dreyfus and Dreyfus 1992 book "What Computers still can't do." Below is a video with Gigerenzer on...
Gerd Gigerenzer on “Risk Literacy”
This is a very useful talk based on Gigerenzer's book. Using the example weather forecasts he makes he explains that many people do know know why the relevant reference class is when we are told it rains with 30% proability. He also councils that we always need to...
“Predicting Future is Possible” Very informative Phil Tetlock interview in NY Times
Even for someone who is somewhat familiar with Tetlock's ideas on forecasting skills, this podcast is very informative. You can listen to it or read the transcript at the NY Times.
Video Summary of Tetlock and Gardener
Below is a great video summary of key ideas in Tetlock and Gardener's book "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction."