Forecasting Strategy 

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket where anyone can bet real money on future events are proving surprisingly competitive with professional economists. A working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that over Kalshi's five-year existence,...

Adam Jonas, long known as one of Morgan Stanley’s most influential auto analysts, has taken on a striking new role: the bank’s first “global embodied AI strategist,” focused on robotics, autonomous vehicles, drones, and even flying cars. Jonas compares his research...

Remember our article about new models by Google outperforming traditional weather models? Progress has been made since then: meet “Aardvark Weather,” a cutting-edge system built on machine learning (ML) that’s transforming how we predict the weather—potentially for...

“No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs” – that’s a bold prediction by AI forecasting startup Aaru’s founder Cam Fink. The startup wants to revolutionize forecasting in every application of business- and everyday life. For now they...

All large U.S. newspapers are coming out with opinion polls that try to give us a snapshot of who the U.S. electorate would vote for if the election were held today. Statisticians such as Nate Silver have tried to make election forecasts more accurate than individual...

As on earth, there are also storms in space. While storms on earth are tangible, space storms are less evident as they consist of charged particles. The effects of these storms can be pleasant – geomagnetic storms are responsible for the northern lights – but can also...

Accurately predicting sales data is a challenge all retail companies face. Especially in light of the vast availability of data and solutions to evaluate data, firms at the cutting-edge of forecasting technology can gain an invaluable competitive advantage. The...

Especially in light of climate change, modelling medium-range (next 10 days) weather is becoming increasingly important. The current industry gold-standard is the High Resolution Forecast (HRES), produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts...

Prediction markets and betting on a person’s believes about the future is not a phenomenon linked to the rise of the internet, but an activity dating back hundreds of years. The first confirmed accounts of such activities date back to 1503 when Italian merchants...

The Metacalculus prediting platform has published a very useful report, using both a group of superforecasters and a large group of forecasters, to make forecasts about key trends for the next 100 years.   You download full report here. 

By Johann Peter Murmann and Benedikt Schuler How will the technological shift from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) change the architecture of the automotive industry? To explore this question, we systematically compare...