All large U.S. newspapers are coming out with opinion polls that try to give us a snapshot of who the U.S. electorate would vote for if the election were held today. Statisticians such as Nate Silver have tried to make election forecasts more accurate than individual polls by taking the average of all polls and weighing them by the quality of the pollster and other factors, such as how recently the poll was taken. Silver’s election model on September 5 only gave Kamala Harris a 39.7 percent chance of winning the presidential election in November.
Source: Silver Bulletin
By contrast history and politics professor Alan Lichtman, on the same day, came out with his forecast that Kamela Harris will defeat Donald Trump taking a very different approach than Silver’s poll of polls or prediction markets such as Polymarket that put her chance of winning at 46%.
Lichtman became famous for successfully predicting U.S. presidential elections based on 13 “yes-no” questions. In the past 40 years, he has only been wrong once in the Bush vs. Gore election but claims that the votes were counted wrongly. Back then, George W. Bush won the election in the State of Florida by a narrow margin of 0.5%, which automatically triggered a recount in that state. Both candidates pushed for recounts in several regions of Florida, and in the end, the election was decided by a 5:4 Supreme Court ruling in favor of Bush. Before the first debate between Harris and Trump, Lichtman claims that his 13 keys will again predict correctly, and the debate does not matter at all. Everything but the 13 keys is noise distracting us from paying attention to what truly matters for predicting the outcome of a presidential election, Lichtman has argued for decades.
Lichtman, together with geophysicist Wladimir Keilis-Borok, developed this system based on 13 “keys” first in 1981, drawing on historical data from all previous U.S. presidential elections. Each key poses a question regarding the election (see screenshot below), with a “true” counting for Harris and a “false” counting for Trump. Key 1 clearly favors Trump, as the Democrats did not achieve midterm gains. No primary contestant appears true based on Harris’ rapid rise to the top of the ticket. Key 3 (incumbent seeking re-election) is false as Harris was never president. Key 4 (no third party) is true since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out. Key 5 is true based on the fact that the economy is not in a recession. Also, the economic outlook is stronger than in previous terms, making Key 6 true. Major policy changes were achieved by the major bills on climate change and infrastructure, making Key 7 true. There was no social unrest under Joe Biden’s presidency, and there haven’t been any scandals associated with Kamala Harris, making Keys 8 and 9 true. Keys 10 and 11 are split, as Lichtman doesn’t see Biden’s foreign policy as a clear win or loss (he puts 10 as false because of the Gaza conflict and 11 as true for his handling of the Ukraine war). Lichtman doesn’t see Harris as a charismatic candidate (Key 12), comparing her to legendary presidents like Obama, FDR, and Kennedy. Finally, he assigns Key 13 as true because he sees Trump as uncharismatic, based on him not being an inspiring, once-in-a-decade candidate for the entire electorate.
Source: Youtube, Allan Lichtman
Lichtman’s fame increased significantly when, as a Democrat, he predicted that Donald Trump would win in 2016, while most polling organizations and Nate Silver predicted a win for Hillary Clinton.
Following Lichtman’s final prediction for the 2024 election on September 5, he was featured not only in stories by major U.S. newspapers (the New York Times produced a fancy video) but also by media outlets in Germany and Switzerland. Among election forecast watchers, Lichtman is now an international celebrity, and the stakes for him personally and his “13 Keys” have become much higher. Perhaps Donald Trump, as a candidate unlike any other in U.S. history, is not captured by the 13 keys that are based on historical data. In any case, we predict that if Lichtman’s 2024 presidential forecast again turns out correct, his fame will increase even more. But if Trump wins, Lichtman’s star will fade, and the NY Times will not produce another fancy video with him in 2028. We will find out in November, or at the latest on Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025.
Johann Peter Murmann and Leon Bamesreiter