by Niklas Ungar | Oct 26, 2026 | Reports
In 2024, prediction markets backed Donald Trump while the polls called a toss-up, and they were right. In Brazil, the same confidence has now backfired: hours before the October 25 runoff, Polymarket gave Senator Flávio Bolsonaro roughly 80% odds of unseating...
by Niklas Ungar | Oct 6, 2026 | Reports
For the first time, an AI has won the Metaculus Cup, a seasonal tournament in which hundreds of forecasters predict real-world events. In the round decided on September 5, other bots took second and fifth place, leaving humans third and fourth. The winning bot was...
by Niklas Ungar | Feb 24, 2026 | Reports, Uncategorized
Who predicts the future best: seasoned domain experts, statistical models, or amateur forecasters? A research review by consultancy Arb finds that none of the three wins outright, but the rankings may still surprise you. Top “superforecasters” hold a...
by Niklas Ungar | Feb 24, 2026 | Reports
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket where anyone can bet real money on future events are proving surprisingly competitive with professional economists. A working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that over Kalshi’s five-year...
