by Niklas Ungar | Feb 24, 2026 | Reports, Uncategorized
Who predicts the future best: seasoned domain experts, statistical models, or amateur forecasters? A research review by consultancy Arb finds that none of the three wins outright, but the rankings may still surprise you. Top “superforecasters” hold a...
by Niklas Ungar | Feb 24, 2026 | Reports
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket where anyone can bet real money on future events are proving surprisingly competitive with professional economists. A working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that over Kalshi’s five-year...
