by J. Peter Murmann | Feb 27, 2023 | Reports
The Metacalculus prediting platform has published a very useful report, using both a group of superforecasters and a large group of forecasters, to make forecasts about key trends for the next 100 years. You download full report...
by J. Peter Murmann | Feb 26, 2023 | Reports
By Johann Peter Murmann and Benedikt Schuler How will the technological shift from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) change the architecture of the automotive industry? To explore this question, we systematically compare...
by J. Peter Murmann | Dec 5, 2022 | Books, Talks
Gerd Gigerenzer has written a wonderful new book How to Stay Smart in a Smart World: Why Human Intelligence Still Beats Algorithms.| It strikes me as an update of Dreyfus and Dreyfus 1992 book “What Computers still can’t do.” Below is a video...
by J. Peter Murmann | Sep 11, 2022 | Books
This is a very useful talk based on Gigerenzer’s book. Using the example weather forecasts he makes he explains that many people do know know why the relevant reference class is when we are told it rains with 30% proability. He also councils that we always need...
by J. Peter Murmann | Dec 14, 2021 | Interviews
Even for someone who is somewhat familiar with Tetlock’s ideas on forecasting skills, this podcast is very informative. You can listen to it or read the transcript at the NY...
by J. Peter Murmann | Nov 14, 2021 | Books
Below is a great video summary of key ideas in Tetlock and Gardener’s book “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.”...
