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This is a very useful talk based on Gigerenzer’s book. Using the example weather forecasts he makes he explains that many people do know know why the relevant reference class is when we are told it rains with 30% proability.  He also councils that we always need to know the absolute risk of an event rather than the relevant risk. He is optimistic that we all can become much better at evaluating risk if we are taught a few simple tricks.