Forecasting Strategy 

Chatbots Beating Human Forecasters in Election Predictions

Chatbots Beating Human Forecasters in Election Predictions

“No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs” – that’s a bold prediction by AI forecasting startup Aaru’s founder Cam Fink. The startup wants to revolutionize forecasting in every application of business- and everyday life. For now they...

Predicting Extraterrestrial Threats using AI

Predicting Extraterrestrial Threats using AI

As on earth, there are also storms in space. While storms on earth are tangible, space storms are less evident as they consist of charged particles. The effects of these storms can be pleasant – geomagnetic storms are responsible for the northern lights – but can also...

Blockchain Prediction Markets

Blockchain Prediction Markets

Prediction markets and betting on a person’s believes about the future is not a phenomenon linked to the rise of the internet, but an activity dating back hundreds of years. The first confirmed accounts of such activities date back to 1503 when Italian merchants...

Forecasting the next 100 years

Forecasting the next 100 years

The Metacalculus prediting platform has published a very useful report, using both a group of superforecasters and a large group of forecasters, to make forecasts about key trends for the next 100 years.   You download full report here. 

Gigerenzer on Strength and Weakness of AI

Gigerenzer on Strength and Weakness of AI

Gerd Gigerenzer has written a wonderful new book How to Stay Smart in a Smart World: Why Human Intelligence Still Beats Algorithms.| It strikes me as an update of Dreyfus and Dreyfus 1992 book "What Computers still can't do."   Below is a video with Gigerenzer on...

Gerd Gigerenzer on “Risk Literacy”

Gerd Gigerenzer on “Risk Literacy”

This is a very useful talk based on Gigerenzer's book. Using the example weather forecasts he makes he explains that many people do know know why the relevant reference class is when we are told it rains with 30% proability.  He also councils that we always need to...